Ranking Which Current Division Lead is the Safest

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With the Major League Baseball season a little over a month in, experts can start to sense which teams are going to compete this year, and which one’s should maybe start looking towards next season. Right now, four of the six divisions have different leaders than what they finished with last season. Only the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are currently succeeding in defending last year’s divisional crowns. Over the coming months, we will see which of these surprise teams can hang on to their division lead. Here is how safe each division lead is, in my opinion, on a scale of 1-10 (1 being dangerous, 10 being very safe).

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are playing with a chip on their shoulders, after losing two straight World Series, they are playing determined to prove those wrong and show that they can get over the hump and win a World Series. With very little competition in the NL West, it is extremely unlikely that we will see the Dodgers relinquish their division lead, even if another team in the division gets hot. Security Level: 10
  2. Houston Astros: The Astros are playing better than what their record shows, as their run differential is currently third best in the AL. Their offense has been strong, averaging 5.1 runs per game (good for third best in the AL), and their pitching staff ranks second in ERA in the AL at 3.73. With the A’s underperforming and the Mariners having come crashing down to earth in the past four weeks, the Astros seem like a very safe bet to win their third straight AL West title. Security Level: 10
  3. Minnesota Twins: This might surprise some, but the Twins have the best winning percentage in all of baseball at .657. While the Indians have won the AL Central each of the past three seasons, the Twins have been firing on all cylinders, while the Indians have seen their star players struggle and have dealt with injuries. It wouldn’t be too surprising if the Indians overtake the Twins, but the Twins have played like a complete team through the first 35 games of the season and seem poised to win their first division crown since 2010. Security Level: 7
  4. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs got off to a dreadful start, starting the year 2-7 with dreadful starting pitching. Since then however, the Cubs have gone 19-6, fresh off a sweep of their arch-rival St Louis Cardinals. Kris Bryant has started hit like the all star he has shown he can be, as well as Anthony Rizzo, with Javier Baez and Wilson Contreras also tearing the cover of the ball. Even Jason Heyward has been hitting well, with an OPS almost 200 points higher than his mark since he joined the Cubs. Outside of Yu Darvish, the starting pitching has been excellent, and despite not having a designated closer, their bullpen has been pretty solid as well. The Cardinals and Brewers are definitely going to give the Cubs a run for their money though, so the Cubs can’t be placing their bets on running away with the division. Security Level: 5
  5. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies were very aggressive this offseason, and thus far, despite Bryce Harper struggling, the moves seem to be paying off. Their offense has produced 5.22 runs per game, and despite a shaky bullpen, their pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA thus far. However, even though the Braves and Mets have been struggling of late, both teams could be dangerous. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies’ bullpen has struggled, and their defensive flaws have been shown as well, having committed the eighth most errors in the NL. It’s hard to see the Mets’ pitching staff struggling all season long, and the Phillies haven’t exactly gotten the best results from ace Aaron Nola. The Phillies could still win the NL East, but the Mets and Braves are going to be on their heels all season. Security Level: 4
  6. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have been outstanding thus far, boasting a team ERA of 2.87 that is the best in the majors by a country mile at the moment, over a half run better than the second best team (Cincinnati Reds are second at 3.44). The offense has averaged 4.7 runs per game, led by defending AL Rookie of the Month Brandon Lowe, as well as outfielders Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows. The Rays definitely look like a playoff team, but the Yankees have been winning despite having most of their stars on the injured list, and the defending world champion Red Sox have started to heat up, having won 13 of their last 19 games. Even if the Rays continue to do everything right, the two teams right behind them are starting to heat up and will be hard to stop once they are both at full strength. Security Level: 3

Published by Mathias Altman-Kurosaki

Mathias Altman-Kurosaki is currently a graduate student at the Newhouse School of Public Communications at Syracuse University. He is focusing on Broadcast and Digital Journalism on the Sports Media and Communications Track. Before going to Newhouse, he graduated from The College of New Jersey with a degree in journalism. He was also a varsity swimmer in college. In addition to his work at FHS, Mathias is the MLB department head at Overtime Heroics and previously was the sports and opinions editor for TCNJ's student-run newspaper, The Signal. He's a lifelong New Yorker and is the youngest of five kids. When he's not working, Mathias enjoys watching sports, working out, and traveling.

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